Does the Collingwood area real estate market follow Toronto?

For as long as I’ve been in the real estate business, people have always said that our real estate market in South Georgian Bay follows the Toronto market so I decided to pull up some stats to see if that is true.

This chart shows the general pattern of average sale prices over the past 10 years for both markets.It is true – the trend lines are comparable.  It makes sense for a number of reasons.  Many of our buyers come here from the GTA so the buying and selling activity in the GTA market has a direct impact on people’s ability to buy here. It also makes sense that we share the same economic conditions in the Province and, we experience the same interest rates and mortgage rules.

Another often stated rumour is that we run about six months behind the GTA market but a closer look at year over year changes in average sale prices suggest that is not true.

South Georgian Bay                       Toronto

Year                       Ave.Sale $           % change             Ave.Sale $           % change

2008                       $273,006                                              $379,347

2009                       $280,917              2.9                          $395,460              4.2

2010                       $306,890              9.2                          $431,276              9.1

2011                       $312,628              1.9                          $465,014              7.8

2012                       $306,075              -2.0                        $497,130              6.9

2013                       $316,182              3.3                          $522,958              5.2

2014                       $341,906              8.1                          $566,624              8.3

2015                       $366,418              7.2                          $622,123              9.8

2016                       $413,585              12.9                        $729,837              17.3

2017                       $509,773              23.2                        $822,572              12.7

2018*                    $531,739              4.3                         $789,217              – 4

*To end of November 2018  Data obtained from Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® and Toronto Real Estate Board MLS® data. Time frame is from Jan 2008 to Nov 2018; Property Type is Residential Single Family; Blue Mountains, Clearview,  Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, Wasaga Beach; Results calculated from 16,745 listings

Interestingly, in the last two years, we have outpaced the GTA market in price increases.

I started to wonder how much of the pattern of our market is tied to GTA specifically versus other areas in Ontario.  Here is a chart showing South Georgian Bay average sale prices compared to Ottawa and London.

We can see that the trend lines are similar suggesting that provincial and federal conditions and policies have a similar impact in all areas, however, there are enough variations, especially compared to the distant Ottawa market, to tell us that we are more closely aligned to the GTA market in comparison.

So now we know.  Just another tidbit for your next cocktail party.